Nov 27, 2006

Bloom Off Chase

It is no secret that the bloom is off the rose when it comes to the chase for the championship in Nextel Cup. Conceived as an answer to the playoffs and championship games of the stick-and-ball sports, the Chase initially showed promise in capturing a broader audience for the NASCAR equivalent of the Super Bowl, but the TV ratings demonstrate that the gambit has been weak and continually gets weaker in terms of grabbing attention. When Jimmie Johnson captured the Nextel Cup championship with a rousing ninth place finish a week ago, a substantial portion of the television audience demonstrated its disinterest. The Ford 400 broadcast from Homestead, Florida, earned just a 4.3 overnight rating and a 7.0 share of sets in use from Nielsen Media Research. That means that 93 percent of the TV sets that were turned on during that time slot were tuned to something else.

Not only was the rating/share so-so, but it has been slipping. The results represent a 10.4 percent fall-off from the 4.8 rating/9.0 share the race garnered in 2005. Even more telling is a 23.2 percent drop from 2004, when the format of the Chase for the Cup was instituted.

Watching the final race, you can easily see why it has not been compelling to the casual race fan who doesn't live or die by NASCAR. It just wasn't very interesting and, for those who aren't NASCAR-centric, it was both arcane and anti-climatic. In the first place, because of his lead in the Nextel Cup points standings, Johnson had only to finish 12th or better in the race to take the crown, so he spent his afternoon and early evening trying his darndest to avoid crashes. Strategy indicated that he had no interest in winning the race. Too risky. Meanwhile, Matt Kenseth, who was number two in points, was running well off the lead most of the time, so barring a front-of-the-pack accident that would trash all the leaders, he had little chance of pulling off the big upset. While NBC's announcers kept noting that Johnson had to finish 12th or better to win, since all that was predicated on a Kenseth victory, the issue was almost entirely moot.

What this points out is that the stick-and-ball sports definitely do a better job of creating an end of season championship that draws fan interest. Take the Super Bowl, for example. The team that wins that game is the champion. Period.

Which is why I have to again point to the proposal I made in September -- make the final race of the NASCAR season a race for the championship. Let a relative few drivers qualify and compete, and then crown the driver that wins the race the champion. Simple. Compelling. A ratings winner. Come on, NASCAR, you guys are smart; give it a try!